The Economics of Vancouver's New Multiplex Zoning: What Landowners Need to Know

The Policy Shift That Changed Everything

In November 2023, the Province of British Columbia passed Bill 44, the Housing Statutes (Residential Development) Amendment Act. It was one of the most consequential pieces of housing legislation in the province's history. With a single bill, the province overrode decades of single-family zoning exclusivity across every municipality with a population over 5,000. The message was unambiguous: the era of the single-family lot as the default unit of residential land use in British Columbia is over.

For landowners, investors, and developers paying attention, this represents a generational repricing of residential land across Metro Vancouver. Understanding the economics of this shift, not just the policy headlines, is the difference between capturing that value and watching it pass by.

This article is written from the perspective of a practitioner. It is not a policy summary. It is an operator's guide to what the numbers actually look like, where the opportunity is real, and where the risks are frequently underestimated.

What Bill 44 Actually Did (And What It Did Not Do)

Bill 44 mandated that municipalities permit Small-Scale Multi-Unit Housing (SSMUH) on virtually all single-family and duplex-zoned lots. In practical terms, this means:

| Lot Size | Units Permitted (General) | Units Near Transit | |---|---|---| | Standard (33–50 ft wide) | 4 units | 6 units | | Large (50+ ft wide) | 4–6 units | 6 units | | Near frequent transit | 6 units | 6 units |

The key word is permitted. Bill 44 did not eliminate all barriers to development. What it did was remove the rezoning requirement, historically the single most expensive and time-consuming step in the development process for small-scale projects. You no longer need to apply for a rezoning, hold public hearings, or wait for council approval to build a fourplex on a standard residential lot. You apply for a development permit and a building permit. That is a structural reduction in both risk and timeline.

What Bill 44 did not do is eliminate the need for development permits, building permits, design review, or compliance with municipal design guidelines. Processing times in Vancouver and Burnaby for SSMUH projects are currently running 12–18 months for development permits and an additional 6–9 months for building permits. The bureaucratic friction has been reduced, not eliminated.

The Land Economics: How Zoning Reform Reprices Lots

The most important concept for any landowner or investor to understand is the relationship between permitted density and land value. Land is not priced on its current use. It is priced on its highest and best use. When Bill 44 increased the permitted density of a standard 33-foot lot from one unit to four units, it fundamentally changed the highest and best use calculation for every such lot in the province.

A Worked Example: The 33-Foot Lot in East Vancouver

Consider a standard 33 × 122 foot lot in East Vancouver, currently improved with a 1960s bungalow. Before Bill 44, the highest and best use was a single-family home or, at most, a duplex. The land value was priced accordingly, at approximately $1.4M to $1.6M in 2024 market conditions.

Post-Bill 44, the same lot can support a fourplex. Here is a simplified pro forma:

Revenue (Strata Sale Model)

4 units × 1,200 sq ft average × $1,050/sq ft = $5,040,000 GDV

Costs

Land: $1,550,000
Hard costs (construction at $420/sq ft × 4,800 sq ft): $2,016,000
Soft costs (permits, consultants, financing at ~18% of hard): $362,880
Contingency (8%): $161,280
Carrying costs / financing: ~$200,000
Total Cost: ~$4,290,160

Developer Margin

Gross profit: ~$749,840
Margin on cost: ~17.5%

This is a workable margin for an experienced operator. But notice what happens when you run the same math with land at $1.8M: the margin compresses to under 10%, which is below the threshold most lenders and equity partners require to justify the risk. Land price is the single most sensitive variable in the entire pro forma. Disciplined site acquisition is therefore the core competency of a multiplex developer.

The Rental Model: A Different Logic

The strata sale model is not the only path. An increasing number of operators are building to hold, constructing fourplexes and sixplexes as long-term rental assets. The economics look different but can be equally compelling, particularly for operators with a long time horizon.

Rental Pro Forma (Same 33-Foot Lot, 4 Units)

Gross rental income: 4 units × $2,800/month × 12 = $134,400/year
Vacancy and management (8%): -$10,752
Operating expenses (taxes, insurance, maintenance): -$18,000
Net Operating Income (NOI): ~$105,648/year

At a 4.5% cap rate (current Metro Vancouver market for newer small multifamily), the implied value of the stabilized asset is approximately $2.35M. Given total development costs of ~$2.74M (excluding land), this does not pencil on a yield-on-cost basis at current cap rates, unless you acquired the land below market, have a lower cost of capital, or are underwriting to a 5-year hold with rent growth assumptions.

The rental model rewards patient capital and operators who can acquire land efficiently. It does not reward operators who overpay for land and expect market appreciation to bail them out.

Where the Real Opportunity Is: Specific Submarkets

Not all lots are created equal under the new zoning regime. The highest-value opportunities share a specific set of characteristics:

1. Proximity to Frequent Transit Lots within 400 metres of a SkyTrain station or frequent bus route qualify for 6 units instead of 4. That additional unit can represent $300,000 to $500,000 in additional gross revenue on a strata sale model. The land premium for transit-adjacent lots is real, but it is frequently underpriced relative to the density uplift it enables.

2. Larger Lot Sizes A 40-foot or 50-foot wide lot allows for more efficient building footprints, reducing per-unit construction costs and improving livability. The market has not yet fully priced the premium for wider lots relative to standard 33-foot lots.

3. Flat Topography Sloped lots add $50,000 to $150,000 in excavation and foundation costs. In a business where margins are measured in single-digit percentages, this is material. Flat lots in established neighborhoods are systematically undervalued relative to their development potential.

4. East Vancouver, Burnaby, and New Westminster These three municipalities offer the best combination of land pricing, transit access, and demand fundamentals. The City of Vancouver's westside has land prices that make fourplex economics extremely difficult to pencil. The eastside and inner suburbs are where the math works.

The Risks That Are Frequently Underestimated

Any honest assessment of this opportunity must include a clear-eyed view of the risks.

Permit Timeline Risk The 12 to 18 month development permit timeline is an average. Complex sites, design review feedback, or understaffed municipal departments can push this to 24+ months. Every additional month of carrying costs erodes margin. Operators must underwrite conservative timelines and maintain adequate liquidity.

Construction Cost Escalation Hard costs have increased approximately 35–40% since 2020. While the rate of escalation has moderated, labour shortages and material costs remain elevated. Fixed-price contracts with reputable general contractors are essential, but they come at a premium.

Market Absorption Risk The strata sale model assumes you can sell four units in a market that may be absorbing significant new supply. Presale strategies and conservative pricing assumptions are critical. Operators who underwrite to peak market pricing are taking on significant downside risk.

Financing Complexity Construction financing for SSMUH projects is available but requires experienced lenders who understand the product type. Loan-to-cost ratios of 65–75% are typical. Operators must have sufficient equity capital and relationships with construction lenders before committing to a site.

What This Means for Landowners

If you own a single-family home in Metro Vancouver on a standard lot, you are sitting on an asset that has been fundamentally repriced by provincial policy. The question is not whether your land has development value. It does. The question is whether you understand that value, and whether you are positioned to capture it.

The most common mistake landowners make is engaging with the first developer who approaches them without understanding the underlying economics. A developer offering to buy your lot is pricing in a margin for themselves. That is appropriate, as development is a service that creates value. But you should understand what that value is before you negotiate.

The second most common mistake is attempting to develop without the operational expertise to manage permit timelines, construction risk, and market timing. Development is not a passive investment. It requires active management, technical knowledge, and the ability to absorb setbacks without panic.

Conclusion: A Structural Opportunity, Not a Speculative One

The economics of Vancouver's new multiplex zoning are not a speculative play on future policy. They are a structural repricing of residential land that is already underway. The operators who will capture the most value are those who combine disciplined site acquisition, conservative underwriting, and the operational capacity to execute through a complex permitting and construction process.

At Karimi Developments, this is precisely the thesis we are executing. We are not chasing the highest-profile sites or the most aggressive pro formas. We are building a repeatable process for identifying, underwriting, and developing high-quality small-scale multi-family housing in Metro Vancouver's most undersupplied submarkets.

The opportunity is real. The execution is what separates operators from speculators.

Amirali Karimi is the Principal of Karimi Developments, a boutique infill real estate development firm focused on multiplex and gentle-density housing in Metro Vancouver. The views expressed in this article are his own and are based on publicly available data and his firm's proprietary research.

References

[1] Province of British Columbia, Housing Statutes (Residential Development) Amendment Act (Bill 44), November 2023.

[2] City of Vancouver, Small-Scale Multi-Unit Housing Policy Update, 2024.

[3] City of Burnaby, R1 Small-Scale Multi-Unit Housing District Bylaw, 2024.

[4] Metro Vancouver Housing Data Book, 2025.

[5] Altus Group, Canadian Cost Guide 2025: British Columbia.